Homefront was a disappointment overall even though it sold decently at launch. It quickly dropped out of the top 20 most played games on XBox Live so it doesn't look like the game's supposed strength - its multiplayer - is keeping players attention. Red Faction Armageddon looks like a major bomb. It barely broke the top 100 on Amazon at its launch (which seemed poorly timed during E3 when gamers focus on the AAA titles being shown probably only reinforced Red Faction's mediocrity). I can't say I have high hopes for THQ's next few releases (UFC Personal Trainer and Warhammer 40k Space Marine) either. I can't really see UFC fans working out to Kinect or Move and I can't really see the Wii Fit/Zumba crowd being attracted to the game either. Warhammer 40k has been a pretty strong license for THQ but not in action/shooting games. THQ recently confirmed that it closed down Kaos Studios and another studio so I am thinking THQI may take some charges in the June quarter related to that and also the poor performance of Red Faction Armageddon.
However I think things start looking up after that. Saints Row, WWE and UFC are THQ's most reliable franchises and THQ will have all three releasing between November and January. I am especially bullish about Saints Row the Third. I liked what I saw of Saints Row at E3 I think there is room for an over-the-top open world game as the GTA franchise has become more serious. This holiday is crowded but I think SR3's over the top silliness can help set it apart.
I am looking at THQ as more of a short term trade on Saints Row 3 but looking further out a major catalyst for THQ in 2012 would appear to be their MMO, Warhammer 40k Dark Millenium Online. I don't expect the game to be a long term success but I think it could be a big draw at release which could give the stock some short term momentum. EA's Warhammer Age of Reckoning sold over 1 million units in its first few weeks and from game sales data at least the Warhammer 40k universe appears more popular in video games than the Warhammer fantasy universe (I am not knowledgeable about Warhammer however so I may be wrong). THQ recently mentioned that by the time Dark Millenium Online releases it will have been in development for seven years. Vigil's Darksiders was well received so although they have no experience in MMOs that gives me a little encouragement. If Dark Millenium Online can sell a similar number of units as Age of Reckoning upon release I think that would be a pretty big deal for THQ.